Chance of rain Monday afternoon; heavier rains expected Tuesday

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Monday forecast for Austin: Rain returns to the forecast as the National Weather Service calls for a 40 percent chance of storms, mainly after 2 p.m. The scattered showers could include gusty winds of up to 40 mph, forecasters say.

After six consecutive days of triple-digit high temperatures, Monday’s heat will peak only near 99, forecasters say. But persistent humidity brought in by the southeast winds will push the heat index value, or the “feels like” temperature, to about 105.

Meanwhile, dry air and southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph in the Rio Grande plains on Monday mean another day of elevated fire weather conditions in which brush and grass fires may spread quickly if they occur, the weather service says.

The big day for rain is Tuesday. As a high pressure system moves west, it will surrender its grip on Central Texas and allow unstable air from the east to generate storms and deliver cooler temperatures.

Thunderstorms are likely mainly after 8 a.m. as rain chances ramp up to 60 percent. Daily rainfall amounts between a quarter-inch and a half-inch are possible in some locations, the weather service says.

Through Wednesday, cumulative rainfall totals of up to 3 inches across Central Texas will be possible. The weather service says relatively dry soils should minimize the threat of flash flooding. The risk for storms should decrease by Thursday, with only a few showers along and east of Interstate 35, forecasters say.

Here’s the outlook for the rest of the work week, according to the weather service:

  • Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Mostly cloudy at night, with a low around 77. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
  • Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 96. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Mostly cloudy at night, with a low around 77. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
  • Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Mostly cloudy at night, with a low around 77.

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4th-straight day of 100-degree weather Friday; drought making slow return

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Friday forecast for Austin: Break out the shorts and sunscreen and cross your fingers for luck because we could see not only the fourth consecutive day of triple-digit temperatures but also the 13th day at or above 100 degrees this year.

According to the National Weather Service, the outlook for Friday calls for lots of sunshine and a high temperature near 101. Southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph that have been sending humid Gulf moisture our way could also send heat index values reaching as high as 105.

At night, the increased humidity is expected to lead to more cloudiness that should keep temperatures above 77.

texas droMeanwhile, the rest of Texas is starting to dry out like a wet towel left out in the summer sun. U.S. Drought Monitor data indicates that the state’s ground moisture from heavy rains over the spring is beginning to recede. Texas is considered abnormally dry or in moderate drought in about 13 percent of the state — twice as much area as the week before — and mostly in the Rio Grande plains and in the northeast corner near Texarkana. The eastern edge of Williamson County is now considered abnormally dry, a condition marked by slow plant growth.

Such arid conditions have prompted the National Weather Service to be on alert for wildfires throughout South and Central Texas. Forecasters said fire weather conditions are expected along the Rio Grande plains and in the Edwards Plateau on Friday afternoon. Low relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and brisk winds of 10 to 15 mph could increase the risk for brush and grass fires, the weather service said.

Forecasters also anticipate elevated heat index values of 105 to 107 degrees along and east of I-35 on Friday afternoon.

Looking ahead to the weekend and the new work week, the weather service outlook calls for:

  • Saturday to be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values could reach as high as 104. Dry south-southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph could increase the risk for brush or grass fires.
  • Sunday also to be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
  • Monday to be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98 and temperatures start to stay below the 100-degree mark. South-southeast winds around 5 mph could make the nighttime partly cloudy, with a low around 77.
  • A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. on Tuesday. Otherwise, the day should be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.

Austin’s hot streak continues: More triple-digit heat index values ahead

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Friday forecast for Austin: The Austin metro area’s hot streak continues: Central Texas will experience heat index values of 101 to 105 degrees this afternoon, the National Weather Service says. A few spots east of Interstate 35 could see heat index values between 106 and 109 degrees.

The heat index, as you recall, factors in humidity with air temperature to produce a more accurate measurement of how unbearably hot it is outside. It’s not enough that Austin’s air temperature will rise to 98 degrees on Friday. No, the high humidity levels will make it “feel like” 104 because the additional moisture in the air makes it harder for your body to cool off through evaporating sweat.

The rest of the forecast for Friday looks a lot like what we’ve seen recurring for the past few weeks: hot, humid but sunny. Forecasters also expect the usual nightly pattern to return: Partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 70s as south-southeast winds of up to 15 mph continue to deliver Gulf moisture to keep Central Texas air fairly sticky.

Let’s break down the weather service outlook for the next five days as simply as we can:

  • Saturday: Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 107. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
  • Monday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
  • Wednesday: Wait, what? A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms? Actually, yes, but it’s still expected to be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

Thermometer might say 99 in Austin but it will feel like 106 on Thursday

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Thursday forecast for Austin: After Austin hit 100 degrees on Wednesday, the metro area will continue to swelter on Thursday as heat index values in some locations are expected to climb to around 108 or 109 for a few hours in the afternoon, the National Weather Service says.

The heat index, if you remember, factors in humidity levels when it measures air temperatures. So even though the thermometer might show temperatures peaking at 99 degrees at Camp Mabry in Central Austin on Thursday, the moisture in the air will make it “feel” like it’s closer to 106.

Forecasters say the areas along and east of Interstate 35, including Travis, Hays, Williamson, Bastrop and Caldwell counties, will experience the highest heat index values. Although heat index values of up to 109 are projected in Central Texas, the weather service says values should stay below 108 for most of the afternoon.

The weather service is warning Austin metro area residents to be on alert for signs of heat-related illnesses:

  • Take extra precautions if you are performing strenuous activities outside.
  • Schedule frequent breaks indoors or in the shade if you are working outside.
  • Drink plenty of water.
  • Check on young children, the elderly and people with existing health problems because they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
  • Never leave pets or young children alone in an enclosed vehicle because temperatures can rise to dangerous levels in a matter of minutes.

Meanwhile, the rest of Thursday’s outlook calls for south winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph, and increasing clouds at night. South-southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph continue to usher in tropical moisture, which will keep nighttime temperatures above 78.

The weekend forecast includes some cloudiness at night, but the heat and humidity are sticking around, according to the weather service:

  • Friday’s forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and a high near 98. Heat index values could climb as high as 104. At night, clouds may increase, with a low around 77.
  • Saturday also should be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Forecasters expect partly cloudy skies at night with a low around 77.
  • Sunday will be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. South winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph, will bring more clouds and humidity to keep nighttime temperatures above 79.
  • Monday also will be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. South winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph, will persist as we start the new work week.

Austin metro area under heat advisory Wednesday afternoon; no end to swelter in sight

Wednesday forecast for Austin: A heat advisory will be in effect from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. Wednesday across the Austin metro area, the National Weather Service says.

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

According to the weather service, forecasters issue a heat advisory when the maximum heat index value is expected to be 100 degrees or higher for at least two days and nighttime temperatures won’t drop below 75 degrees.

The heat advisories are typically issued within 12 hours of dangerously hot conditions to help residents avoid heat-related illnesses. The weather service issued the latest advisory just after 3 a.m. Wednesday.

For those of you just joining us for Austin’s swelter of 2016, the heat index measures air temperatures and humidity levels to get a more accurate sense of how the heat will affect the human body. So even though the forecasted peak air temperature Wednesday is 99 degrees, the additional humidity will make it “feel like” 106 degrees outside.

On Wednesday, heat index values are expected to climb to between 105 and 110 degrees across parts of Central Texas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. At night, clouds will increase as south-southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph continue to bring in moisture from the Gulf.

Heat index values are expected to reach similar triple-digit temperatures in the region on Thursday and Friday, which may result in additional heat advisories being issued.

Meanwhile, the weather service forecast rest of the work week calls for continued heat and sunshine:

  • Thursday’s outlook calls for mostly sunny skies and a high near 99. Heat index values could peak at 107. At night, forecasters expect increased cloudiness and a low around 77 as south-southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph persist.
  • Friday should be mostly sunny and hot again, with a high near 98. Skies at night should be mostly clear, with temperatures no cooler than 78 and more winds from the south-southeast delivering humid, tropical air.
  • Forecasters say Saturday will look a lot like previous days, mostly sunny and hot with a high near 98. Partly cloudy skies are expected at night, with a low around 78.
  • Sunday also should be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98, the weather service says. South winds of 5 to 15 mph could include gusts as high as 20 mph.

Because heat illnesses are possible on Wednesday and could develop quickly, the weather service offer these tips:

 

  • Drink plenty of fluids
  • Stay out of the sun
  • If you have to work or spend time outside, reschedule strenuous activities for the morning or evening when temperatures are coolest
  • Wear lightweight or loose-fitting clothing when possible
  • Watch out for signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke, such as dizziness, nausea or a rapid pulse

 

Triple-digit heat Tuesday in Austin metro area; heat advisory until 7 p.m.

index

Tuesday forecast for Austin: Temperatures are expected to peak at 100 degrees Tuesday and a heat advisory is in effect through 7 p.m. for the Austin metro area, the National Weather Service says.

Heat index values will reach 108 to 110 along and east of Interstate 35 between noon and 7 p.m. Tuesday.

According to the weather service, a heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected and that the combination of heat and high humidity will create conditions for heat-related illnesses to not only be possible but also to develop quickly.

heatForecasters are recommending these tips for residents:

  • Drink plenty of fluids.
  • Stay in an air-conditioned room.
  • Stay out of the sun.
  • Check up on vulnerable relatives and neighbors, such as small children and the elderly.
  • Reschedule strenuous activities to the early morning or evening, when temperatures are coolest.
  • Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible.

Clouds are expected to increase at night and winds may gust as high as 20 mph, but temperatures will remain above normal and should drop no lower than 80 degrees, forecasters say.

According to the weather service, the rest of the short work week will see a little more cloudiness but mostly roasting heat:

  • Wednesday will be mostly cloudy before becoming sunny and hot with a high near 99 in the afternoon. Heat index values could climb as high as 106. South winds of 10 to 15 mph could include gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Thursday will be mostly sunny and hot with a high near 99 and south winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. At night, winds will turn into south-southeast breezes of 10 to 15 mph, bringing additional Gulf moisture.
  • By Friday, forecasters expect sunshine and more heat as the temperature peaks around 99. Friday night could be partly cloudy, with a low around 79 as south winds of 10 to 15 mph continue, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

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